Race 5A

nicholas-barnett

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Maxwell Simmons 12.7% 10.5% 13.1% 12.6% 11.3% 11.7% 9.6% 7.3% 5.7% 3.6% 1.6% 0.3%
Peter Edmunds 8.1% 10.6% 9.9% 11.4% 10.7% 10.9% 10.8% 9.0% 10.1% 5.1% 2.7% 0.7%
Bryce Kopp 13.7% 11.2% 14.2% 11.1% 12.6% 10.7% 11.4% 7.0% 3.9% 2.4% 1.5% 0.3%
Edward Moan 1.5% 1.4% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 4.7% 5.9% 6.7% 10.4% 13.2% 19.7% 28.1%
Duncan Swain 19.5% 20.3% 15.4% 11.8% 10.7% 8.5% 4.6% 4.9% 2.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Robert Floyd 15.9% 14.5% 14.0% 12.5% 12.5% 9.2% 8.6% 6.4% 3.4% 1.6% 1.1% 0.3%
Duncan Howes 8.6% 9.3% 9.9% 9.8% 10.5% 9.6% 10.1% 10.8% 9.9% 6.9% 3.3% 1.3%
Scott Goodrich 8.8% 8.7% 7.4% 9.4% 9.5% 10.9% 10.6% 10.8% 9.6% 7.3% 5.2% 1.8%
Patrick Penwell 4.0% 4.4% 5.3% 8.6% 7.7% 8.9% 9.7% 11.3% 13.5% 12.2% 10.1% 4.3%
Terry Duncan 2.0% 3.0% 2.3% 2.9% 3.3% 4.0% 5.5% 7.6% 9.5% 13.5% 21.4% 25.0%
Sarah Fuller 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.9% 7.9% 10.1% 13.4% 15.5% 14.1% 11.3%
William Dykes 1.7% 3.1% 2.6% 1.8% 2.5% 4.0% 5.3% 8.1% 7.9% 17.4% 19.1% 26.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.