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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech1.14+2.77vs Predicted
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2Princeton University0.84+2.51vs Predicted
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3William and Mary0.51+1.98vs Predicted
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4SUNY Stony Brook-0.58+4.09vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.59+0.57vs Predicted
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6Washington College0.69-1.15vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University0.01-0.49vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology-1.55+2.23vs Predicted
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9Columbia University-1.09+0.28vs Predicted
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10Villanova University-0.11-3.15vs Predicted
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11American University-1.81-0.27vs Predicted
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12University of Pittsburgh-2.08-0.84vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.72-8.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.77Virginia Tech1.1419.1%1st Place
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4.51Princeton University0.8412.1%1st Place
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4.98William and Mary0.5111.6%1st Place
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8.09SUNY Stony Brook-0.583.5%1st Place
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5.57Christopher Newport University0.5910.7%1st Place
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4.85Washington College0.6910.5%1st Place
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6.51Syracuse University0.016.6%1st Place
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10.23Rochester Institute of Technology-1.551.4%1st Place
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9.28Columbia University-1.092.6%1st Place
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6.85Villanova University-0.115.5%1st Place
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10.73American University-1.811.1%1st Place
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11.16University of Pittsburgh-2.080.7%1st Place
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4.45Hampton University0.7214.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reid Shanabrook | 19.1% | 17.3% | 14.9% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 12.1% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Whisner | 11.6% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Magill | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 8.6% | 2.3% |
| Luke Hayes | 10.7% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Alex Heim | 10.5% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Shay Gualdoni | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 17.6% | 23.8% | 19.3% |
| Ava Rotondo | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 16.2% | 19.2% | 16.9% | 7.3% |
| Jack Murray | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Lydia LoPiccolo | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 15.3% | 22.7% | 29.9% |
| Jason "Strongbones" Case | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 13.5% | 21.1% | 39.6% |
| Stefano Palamara | 14.6% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.