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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.90+4.54vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.77+3.82vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.38+1.31vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.19+0.74vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.65-1.29vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.23-1.38vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.68-1.02vs Predicted
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8Bates College1.32+1.26vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire1.35+0.30vs Predicted
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10Middlebury College1.35-0.81vs Predicted
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11University of Connecticut1.93-2.88vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.19-4.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.54Bowdoin College2.900.1%1st Place
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5.82Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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4.31Dartmouth College3.380.2%1st Place
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4.74Boston College3.190.1%1st Place
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3.71Tufts University3.650.2%1st Place
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4.62Connecticut College3.230.1%1st Place
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5.98Northeastern University2.680.1%1st Place
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9.26Bates College1.320.0%1st Place
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9.3University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
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9.19Middlebury College1.350.0%1st Place
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8.12University of Connecticut1.930.0%1st Place
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7.39University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Edmunds | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Duncan Howes | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Robert Floyd | 15.6% | 13.6% | 15.1% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Maxwell Simmons | 11.9% | 14.4% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Duncan Swain | 19.6% | 19.6% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Bryce Kopp | 14.6% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Scott Goodrich | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Edward Moan | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 18.4% | 28.9% |
| William Dykes | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 21.1% | 24.3% |
| Terry Duncan | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 22.2% | 24.5% |
| Sarah Fuller | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 16.7% | 14.2% | 10.9% |
| Patrick Penwell | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 6.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.