Race 1B

nicholas-barnett

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Charles Lalumiere 21.7% 20.0% 17.7% 14.0% 11.5% 6.2% 4.8% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Ellis Tonissi 7.2% 7.7% 11.6% 11.0% 11.4% 12.8% 11.4% 10.8% 8.2% 5.5% 1.9% 0.5%
John Cappetta 4.3% 4.6% 4.1% 5.5% 6.3% 8.2% 10.4% 12.2% 14.4% 12.4% 11.4% 6.2%
Ben Weigel 23.7% 22.0% 17.1% 13.2% 10.1% 7.0% 2.8% 2.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Tom Peabody 9.9% 8.7% 10.2% 13.1% 12.3% 12.2% 11.0% 8.1% 7.4% 4.5% 1.9% 0.7%
Cynthia Connard 1.5% 1.0% 1.1% 2.4% 2.7% 4.4% 3.7% 4.5% 7.7% 12.3% 19.7% 39.0%
Ryan Schmitz 11.1% 11.6% 11.4% 12.1% 13.4% 9.8% 12.0% 8.1% 5.7% 2.9% 1.5% 0.4%
Jesse Thomas 7.8% 8.6% 8.3% 8.0% 9.6% 10.4% 11.9% 12.9% 9.8% 7.2% 3.7% 1.8%
Ann Sager 1.2% 1.8% 1.7% 2.9% 3.2% 5.8% 6.8% 7.2% 11.5% 17.6% 20.6% 19.7%
Jennifer Lee 1.4% 2.8% 3.0% 3.9% 3.2% 4.1% 6.0% 8.5% 11.3% 16.9% 19.2% 19.7%
Christina Lewis 7.4% 8.4% 10.2% 10.6% 11.0% 12.3% 11.4% 11.0% 9.1% 4.6% 3.3% 0.7%
Collin Clark 2.8% 2.8% 3.6% 3.3% 5.3% 6.8% 7.8% 11.0% 13.4% 15.4% 16.5% 11.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.