Race 5B

nicholas-barnett

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Charles Lalumiere 22.2% 18.3% 19.5% 15.3% 8.8% 6.7% 4.9% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan Schmitz 8.9% 11.9% 12.9% 11.0% 14.3% 10.5% 11.1% 8.8% 5.6% 3.4% 1.3% 0.3%
Ben Weigel 24.3% 21.4% 15.6% 14.7% 9.7% 7.4% 3.2% 2.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
John Cappetta 3.4% 3.5% 4.1% 6.5% 7.4% 9.9% 8.5% 13.1% 13.5% 12.9% 10.7% 6.5%
Ellis Tonissi 7.9% 8.8% 9.8% 10.9% 12.3% 10.6% 12.1% 9.4% 8.6% 6.3% 2.6% 0.7%
Christina Lewis 8.6% 8.3% 8.9% 11.1% 11.5% 12.4% 12.5% 11.3% 7.5% 5.1% 2.0% 0.8%
Tom Peabody 10.3% 11.1% 11.5% 11.3% 11.1% 11.9% 10.9% 9.1% 6.2% 4.0% 2.0% 0.6%
Collin Clark 2.4% 3.6% 4.7% 4.2% 4.6% 6.1% 9.1% 9.7% 14.8% 14.8% 15.1% 10.9%
Cynthia Connard 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.8% 3.2% 4.9% 6.8% 8.8% 13.5% 21.9% 33.7%
Jesse Thomas 7.3% 7.5% 7.4% 8.6% 11.1% 12.2% 11.1% 11.6% 10.4% 7.4% 4.3% 1.1%
Ann Sager 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 2.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.1% 7.0% 10.8% 16.1% 21.1% 23.5%
Jennifer Lee 1.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 3.4% 4.3% 6.6% 7.6% 12.2% 15.8% 18.9% 21.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.