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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+7.76vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.95+5.53vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College3.18+7.76vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.39vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.23+5.16vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University3.26+4.19vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.05+4.03vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College4.05-1.20vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont3.51+0.16vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.08-2.90vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-4.03vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.29-1.58vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.72-0.83vs Predicted
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14Boston University3.00-3.04vs Predicted
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15Boston College4.12-8.41vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College3.78-7.89vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.41-7.31vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.28-1.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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7.53Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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10.76Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.39U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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10.16Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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10.19Northeastern University3.260.0%1st Place
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11.03Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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6.8Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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9.16University of Vermont3.510.0%1st Place
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7.1Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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6.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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10.42Georgetown University3.290.0%1st Place
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12.17University of Rhode Island2.720.0%1st Place
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10.96Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
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6.59Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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8.11Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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9.69Tufts University3.410.0%1st Place
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16.2Northwestern University1.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 0.8% |
| William Macdonald | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 3.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Tyler Rice | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 3.2% |
| Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.8% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 4.4% |
| Matthew Wefer | 8.3% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| OJ O'Connell | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 0.8% |
| Ian Barrows | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Avery Fanning | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| AJ Reiter | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% |
| Samuel Cushing | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 16.5% | 7.7% |
| Cameron Fraser | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 4.5% |
| Raul Rios | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Martland | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Dan Nickerson | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Ryan Anderson | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 63.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.