← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Roger Williams University3.95+6.32vs Predicted
-
2Boston College4.12+4.59vs Predicted
-
3Bowdoin College3.18+7.48vs Predicted
-
4Yale University4.08+2.55vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy3.67+3.11vs Predicted
-
6Boston University3.00+4.96vs Predicted
-
7Tufts University3.41+2.20vs Predicted
-
8Harvard University3.05+2.70vs Predicted
-
9Connecticut College2.59+3.57vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont3.51-0.93vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-4.31vs Predicted
-
12Dartmouth College4.05-4.94vs Predicted
-
13Northeastern University3.26-3.20vs Predicted
-
14University of Rhode Island2.72-2.31vs Predicted
-
15Northwestern University1.28+1.16vs Predicted
-
16Georgetown University3.29-6.17vs Predicted
-
17Brown University3.23-6.82vs Predicted
-
18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-9.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.32Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
-
6.59Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
-
10.48Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
-
6.55Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
-
8.11U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
10.96Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
-
9.2Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
-
10.7Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
-
12.57Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
-
9.07University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
-
6.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
-
7.06Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
-
9.8Northeastern University3.260.0%1st Place
-
11.69University of Rhode Island2.720.0%1st Place
-
16.16Northwestern University1.280.0%1st Place
-
9.83Georgetown University3.290.0%1st Place
-
10.18Brown University3.230.0%1st Place
-
8.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Macdonald | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Raul Rios | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 2.9% |
| Ian Barrows | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Snow | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Cameron Fraser | 4.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 4.3% |
| Dan Nickerson | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 4.0% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 15.8% | 9.2% |
| OJ O'Connell | 6.5% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Avery Fanning | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Matthew Wefer | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 2.0% |
| Samuel Cushing | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 7.6% |
| Ryan Anderson | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 12.3% | 60.2% |
| AJ Reiter | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 2.4% |
| Tyler Rice | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.