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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont3.51+8.08vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.05+9.08vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College3.18+7.48vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University3.26+5.74vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.29+4.70vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College4.05+0.70vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.59+5.48vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.00+2.88vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.41+0.19vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.95-2.67vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-2.58vs Predicted
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12Boston College4.12-5.20vs Predicted
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13Yale University4.08-6.51vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.72-2.22vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-8.48vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy3.67-7.74vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.28-0.80vs Predicted
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18Brown University3.23-8.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.08University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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11.08Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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10.48Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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9.74Northeastern University3.260.0%1st Place
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9.7Georgetown University3.290.0%1st Place
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6.7Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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12.48Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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10.88Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
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9.19Tufts University3.410.0%1st Place
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7.33Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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6.8Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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6.49Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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11.78University of Rhode Island2.720.0%1st Place
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6.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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8.26U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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16.2Northwestern University1.280.0%1st Place
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9.87Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OJ O'Connell | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| Michael Drumm | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 3.8% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 2.8% |
| Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| AJ Reiter | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 2.5% |
| Matthew Wefer | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 16.6% | 9.1% |
| Cameron Fraser | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 3.4% |
| Dan Nickerson | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| William Macdonald | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Raul Rios | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ian Barrows | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Cushing | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 6.5% |
| Avery Fanning | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Anderson | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 63.7% |
| Tyler Rice | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.