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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+7.43vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.72+10.30vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont3.51+6.07vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.23+5.86vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.41+4.20vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.12+0.42vs Predicted
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7Yale University4.08-0.41vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University3.26+1.76vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.59+3.53vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.00+1.20vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.05-0.09vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College4.05-5.01vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.29-3.36vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University1.28+2.01vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College3.18-4.87vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University3.95-8.81vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.67-8.60vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-11.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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12.3University of Rhode Island2.720.0%1st Place
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9.07University of Vermont3.510.0%1st Place
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9.86Brown University3.230.0%1st Place
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9.2Tufts University3.410.0%1st Place
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6.42Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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6.59Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.76Northeastern University3.260.0%1st Place
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12.53Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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11.2Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
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10.91Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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6.99Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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9.64Georgetown University3.290.1%1st Place
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16.01Northwestern University1.280.0%1st Place
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10.13Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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7.19Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.4U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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6.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Samuel Cushing | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 9.2% |
| OJ O'Connell | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Tyler Rice | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.2% |
| Dan Nickerson | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Raul Rios | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ian Barrows | 10.5% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 2.0% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 9.4% |
| Cameron Fraser | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 5.1% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| Matthew Wefer | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| AJ Reiter | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| Ryan Anderson | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 11.6% | 57.9% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 2.3% |
| William Macdonald | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Snow | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Avery Fanning | 9.2% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.