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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.05+5.92vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.95+5.29vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+5.47vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.08+2.52vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont3.51+3.83vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.12+0.44vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.23+2.99vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.05+2.65vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.67-0.89vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.41-0.46vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.00+0.07vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College3.18-1.38vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University3.26-3.23vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.72-2.29vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University3.29-5.31vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-9.35vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.59-4.35vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.28-1.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.92Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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7.29Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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6.52Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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8.83University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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6.44Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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9.99Brown University3.230.0%1st Place
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10.65Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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8.11U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.54Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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11.07Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
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10.62Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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9.77Northeastern University3.260.1%1st Place
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11.71University of Rhode Island2.720.0%1st Place
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9.69Georgetown University3.290.0%1st Place
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6.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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12.65Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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16.07Northwestern University1.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Wefer | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| William Macdonald | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Louis Padnos | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| Ian Barrows | 10.1% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| OJ O'Connell | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Raul Rios | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Rice | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 2.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 3.2% |
| Patrick Snow | 5.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Dan Nickerson | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 1.0% |
| Cameron Fraser | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 2.9% |
| Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| Samuel Cushing | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 7.7% |
| AJ Reiter | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| Avery Fanning | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 17.2% | 10.1% |
| Ryan Anderson | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 11.8% | 61.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.