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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.19+2.80vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.71+3.10vs Predicted
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3Monmouth University1.95+4.46vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.60+4.70vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.49-1.69vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.06+1.17vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.77+1.11vs Predicted
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8Villanova University1.21+1.70vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University2.21-2.44vs Predicted
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10Drexel University1.75-1.87vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology1.48-2.14vs Predicted
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12Washington College1.52-3.19vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.55-1.41vs Predicted
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14Penn State University1.35-4.75vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-0.35-1.44vs Predicted
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16Columbia University-3.30-0.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.190.2%1st Place
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5.1Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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7.46Monmouth University1.950.1%1st Place
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8.7U. S. Naval Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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3.31George Washington University3.490.2%1st Place
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7.17University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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8.11George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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9.7Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
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6.56Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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8.13Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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8.86Stevens Institute of Technology1.480.0%1st Place
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8.81Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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11.59Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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9.25Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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13.56Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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15.89Columbia University-3.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Garber | 19.7% | 16.5% | 18.1% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Nunn | 12.1% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Nora | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 24.3% | 20.3% | 16.6% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joe Farned | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jay Spector | 4.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Scott Barnhill | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 5.1% | 0.1% |
| Austin Powers | 8.0% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Joan Boyle | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Carabelli | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Grasso | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 23.0% | 17.2% | 1.2% |
| John Shanahan | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 3.9% | 0.2% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 13.4% | 57.5% | 3.7% |
| Brian Fischman | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 94.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.