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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.19+2.83vs Predicted
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2George Washington University3.49+1.30vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.77+5.10vs Predicted
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4Monmouth University1.95+3.63vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.60+3.65vs Predicted
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6Princeton University0.55+5.87vs Predicted
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7Drexel University1.75+1.28vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.71-3.00vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University2.21-2.44vs Predicted
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10Washington College1.52-1.05vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.06-3.83vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology1.48-2.96vs Predicted
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13Penn State University1.35-3.59vs Predicted
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14Villanova University1.21-4.20vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-0.35-1.07vs Predicted
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16Columbia University-0.66-1.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.83St. Mary's College of Maryland3.190.2%1st Place
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3.3George Washington University3.490.3%1st Place
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8.1George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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7.63Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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8.65U. S. Naval Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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11.87Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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8.28Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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5.0Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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6.56Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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8.95Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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7.17University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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9.04Stevens Institute of Technology1.480.0%1st Place
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9.41Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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9.8Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
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13.93Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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14.47Columbia University-0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Garber | 18.5% | 18.5% | 15.7% | 14.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 25.8% | 19.1% | 16.4% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jay Spector | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Paul Stevens | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Nora | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Grasso | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 17.6% | 18.1% | 9.0% |
| Joan Boyle | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Charles Nunn | 11.9% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Joe Farned | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nicolas Carabelli | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 0.8% |
| John Shanahan | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 0.9% |
| Scott Barnhill | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 6.3% | 1.7% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 11.4% | 28.7% | 35.9% |
| Yuval Millet | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 23.7% | 49.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.