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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.71+4.07vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.19+1.96vs Predicted
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3Stevens Institute of Technology1.48+6.04vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University2.21+2.87vs Predicted
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5Monmouth University1.95+2.47vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.52+2.97vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.06+0.27vs Predicted
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8Drexel University1.75+0.01vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.60-0.39vs Predicted
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10Columbia University-0.66+4.41vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.77-2.94vs Predicted
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12Penn State University1.35-2.59vs Predicted
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13Villanova University1.21-3.17vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.55-2.23vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-0.35-1.02vs Predicted
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16George Washington University3.49-12.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.07Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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3.96St. Mary's College of Maryland3.190.2%1st Place
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9.04Stevens Institute of Technology1.480.0%1st Place
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6.87Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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7.47Monmouth University1.950.1%1st Place
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8.97Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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7.27University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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8.01Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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8.61U. S. Naval Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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14.41Columbia University-0.660.0%1st Place
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8.06George Washington University1.770.1%1st Place
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9.41Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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9.83Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
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11.77Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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13.98Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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3.28George Washington University3.490.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Nunn | 11.2% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Garber | 20.3% | 16.1% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Carabelli | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Austin Powers | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| Joe Farned | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Joan Boyle | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Nora | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Yuval Millet | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 9.1% | 23.6% | 49.9% |
| Jay Spector | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| John Shanahan | 2.3% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 5.6% | 1.7% |
| Scott Barnhill | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 1.9% |
| Andrew Grasso | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 19.0% | 16.2% | 8.5% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 12.7% | 29.7% | 34.7% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 24.3% | 22.1% | 16.7% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.