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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.19+2.84vs Predicted
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2George Washington University3.49+1.32vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University2.21+3.71vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.27vs Predicted
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5Drexel University1.75+3.17vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.71-0.78vs Predicted
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7Villanova University1.21+3.00vs Predicted
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8Rutgers University-0.35+5.79vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.60-0.43vs Predicted
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10Stevens Institute of Technology1.48-0.94vs Predicted
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11Penn State University1.35-1.58vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.77-3.93vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.55-1.18vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.52-5.24vs Predicted
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15Columbia University-0.66-0.52vs Predicted
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16Monmouth University1.95-8.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.84St. Mary's College of Maryland3.190.2%1st Place
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3.32George Washington University3.490.3%1st Place
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6.71Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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7.27University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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8.17Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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5.22Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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10.0Villanova University1.210.0%1st Place
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13.79Rutgers University-0.350.0%1st Place
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8.57U. S. Naval Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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9.06Stevens Institute of Technology1.480.0%1st Place
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9.42Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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8.07George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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11.82Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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8.76Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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14.48Columbia University-0.660.0%1st Place
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7.51Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Garber | 20.3% | 17.3% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 26.0% | 20.0% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Joe Farned | 4.9% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Joan Boyle | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Charles Nunn | 10.4% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barnhill | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 7.5% | 1.9% |
| Mary Morgan | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 11.5% | 27.8% | 33.6% |
| Spencer Nora | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 0.8% |
| Nicolas Carabelli | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| John Shanahan | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% |
| Jay Spector | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 19.3% | 18.3% | 7.8% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Yuval Millet | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 8.6% | 22.9% | 51.5% |
| Paul Stevens | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.