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📊 Prediction Accuracy
12.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59+7.55vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.97+5.59vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.60+5.86vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College0.42+3.74vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.23+1.98vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan1.12+4.27vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.69+3.09vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.55-2.94vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05-2.04vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.13-3.06vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.20-4.60vs Predicted
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12Tulane University1.77-4.21vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.59-4.28vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.85-3.27vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University0.91-1.70vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-5.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.594.9%1st Place
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7.59U. S. Naval Academy1.976.5%1st Place
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8.86University of Pennsylvania1.605.2%1st Place
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7.74SUNY Maritime College0.427.5%1st Place
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6.98College of Charleston2.237.2%1st Place
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10.27University of Michigan1.123.7%1st Place
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10.09Northeastern University1.692.9%1st Place
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5.06Stanford University2.5515.8%1st Place
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6.96St. Mary's College of Maryland2.057.9%1st Place
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6.94George Washington University2.138.3%1st Place
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6.4Georgetown University2.209.9%1st Place
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7.79Tulane University1.777.3%1st Place
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8.72Old Dominion University1.595.3%1st Place
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10.73University of Vermont0.852.8%1st Place
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13.3North Carolina State University0.911.2%1st Place
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10.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Sessions | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% |
| Gray Benson | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Samuel Gavula | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 4.4% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Brandon Geller | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Joe Serpa | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 8.3% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 7.1% |
| Wiley Rogers | 15.8% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Anderson | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Cameron Feves | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Diego Escobar | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Asher Zittrer | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 2.9% |
| Nicholas Salvesen | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 11.6% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 13.5% | 46.7% |
| Lars Osell | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 8.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.