Race 11A

central-fall-2

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Charles Nunn 11.9% 12.0% 13.6% 12.3% 10.6% 8.8% 7.8% 7.5% 6.3% 3.7% 2.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Benjamin Garber 18.6% 18.4% 14.6% 12.6% 8.6% 9.2% 6.7% 4.3% 3.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Brendan Shanahan 23.9% 20.7% 17.8% 12.1% 10.2% 6.9% 3.8% 2.2% 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Joan Boyle 3.7% 5.4% 5.4% 6.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.0% 9.1% 8.2% 10.1% 8.5% 7.6% 7.8% 6.1% 2.2% 0.5%
Jay Spector 4.9% 4.1% 4.9% 7.2% 6.2% 7.8% 9.2% 8.8% 9.4% 6.9% 9.1% 7.6% 6.6% 4.7% 2.3% 0.3%
Nicolas Carabelli 3.1% 3.1% 3.5% 4.8% 6.3% 7.4% 6.4% 6.8% 8.3% 8.9% 9.9% 8.0% 10.1% 7.6% 4.7% 1.1%
Paul Stevens 5.7% 6.2% 5.5% 7.9% 6.5% 7.8% 10.3% 7.0% 8.4% 8.2% 8.4% 8.2% 5.2% 3.5% 1.2% 0.0%
Scott Barnhill 2.3% 3.3% 3.6% 3.9% 4.2% 4.4% 5.4% 8.2% 6.0% 7.9% 9.3% 9.9% 11.4% 11.7% 6.8% 1.7%
Andrew Grasso 1.4% 1.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 3.6% 3.4% 3.7% 5.5% 6.6% 8.3% 12.6% 18.4% 17.5% 8.6%
Joe Farned 6.0% 6.2% 6.5% 6.8% 8.5% 8.4% 9.8% 9.1% 10.8% 8.3% 7.0% 5.2% 4.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3%
Austin Powers 7.6% 7.9% 7.3% 8.6% 9.1% 8.7% 9.4% 8.2% 9.2% 7.3% 6.0% 4.6% 3.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Spencer Nora 3.7% 4.2% 4.6% 4.5% 7.7% 7.4% 6.5% 8.1% 7.7% 8.1% 8.8% 8.5% 8.5% 7.3% 3.9% 0.5%
John Shanahan 2.6% 2.5% 3.9% 5.5% 4.7% 6.1% 6.2% 6.8% 8.0% 9.6% 8.3% 10.8% 8.8% 10.5% 5.1% 0.6%
Hannah Schmidt 4.0% 2.7% 5.3% 4.7% 6.9% 6.4% 6.8% 8.3% 7.8% 8.2% 8.7% 11.3% 8.3% 6.2% 3.6% 0.8%
Mary Morgan 0.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% 1.2% 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% 2.2% 3.5% 4.4% 6.1% 10.5% 29.2% 35.7%
Yuval Millet 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 2.2% 3.6% 5.1% 9.3% 22.1% 49.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.