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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.55+3.87vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59+6.73vs Predicted
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3Tulane University1.77+4.77vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.60+5.03vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.23+1.75vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05+0.88vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.59+1.56vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.13-1.27vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.20-2.35vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+0.11vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.69-0.92vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.42-4.13vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan1.12-2.80vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.85-3.17vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University0.91-1.71vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy1.97-8.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.87Stanford University2.5514.8%1st Place
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8.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.594.4%1st Place
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7.77Tulane University1.776.5%1st Place
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9.03University of Pennsylvania1.604.5%1st Place
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6.75College of Charleston2.239.2%1st Place
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6.88St. Mary's College of Maryland2.059.3%1st Place
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8.56Old Dominion University1.595.9%1st Place
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6.73George Washington University2.138.5%1st Place
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6.65Georgetown University2.208.3%1st Place
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10.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.1%1st Place
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10.08Northeastern University1.694.0%1st Place
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7.87SUNY Maritime College0.425.9%1st Place
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10.2University of Michigan1.123.2%1st Place
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10.83University of Vermont0.853.2%1st Place
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13.29North Carolina State University0.911.8%1st Place
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7.66U. S. Naval Academy1.977.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiley Rogers | 14.8% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.5% |
| Asher Zittrer | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Samuel Gavula | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.5% |
| Brandon Geller | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Charlie Anderson | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| Cameron Feves | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Diego Escobar | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Lars Osell | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 8.0% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 8.6% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Joe Serpa | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 8.2% |
| Nicholas Salvesen | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 12.2% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 44.8% |
| Gray Benson | 7.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.