Race 1A

firefly-fj-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Christopher Ford 23.0% 18.3% 14.7% 16.1% 10.9% 7.5% 5.3% 2.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eric Anderson 15.2% 14.8% 15.4% 12.9% 12.6% 10.4% 7.6% 6.2% 2.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Zachary Vickerson 5.7% 8.9% 8.8% 9.0% 10.2% 12.1% 13.6% 11.9% 10.3% 5.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Cameron Barclift 13.7% 13.3% 11.9% 13.9% 11.3% 11.2% 10.9% 7.5% 4.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Christopher Jensen 13.8% 13.8% 14.5% 11.5% 11.9% 11.3% 10.7% 5.7% 3.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Sarah Hyman 0.9% 0.8% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 3.1% 5.3% 9.0% 17.7% 19.1% 19.6% 14.5%
Tyler Durant 4.2% 4.6% 4.1% 5.1% 7.0% 5.3% 9.0% 12.1% 14.8% 16.9% 11.8% 4.0% 1.1%
Peter Christensen 11.9% 12.0% 11.6% 12.8% 11.9% 13.7% 9.8% 8.1% 5.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Julian Macrone 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 2.3% 4.2% 3.9% 8.3% 15.0% 23.7% 35.6%
Jack Hunger 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 5.3% 7.6% 10.2% 10.0% 13.5% 14.7% 12.4% 7.3% 4.0% 0.6%
Adam Brodheim 4.9% 5.8% 9.2% 7.1% 9.5% 9.7% 11.6% 14.5% 12.5% 7.9% 5.5% 1.5% 0.3%
Joshua Kegan 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 2.0% 2.6% 3.8% 7.5% 11.4% 15.2% 23.3% 29.4%
Kimberly Jackman 0.9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 3.5% 5.0% 9.3% 12.5% 21.0% 22.4% 18.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.