Race 2A

firefly-fj-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Eric Anderson 15.1% 15.2% 14.4% 12.9% 13.6% 10.2% 8.4% 5.2% 2.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Christopher Ford 22.4% 20.4% 17.1% 12.8% 10.0% 8.5% 4.4% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Christopher Jensen 12.6% 13.2% 13.8% 12.9% 11.9% 12.2% 9.9% 7.1% 4.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Cameron Barclift 13.1% 13.4% 13.0% 14.5% 12.8% 10.7% 8.7% 7.6% 4.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
Adam Brodheim 6.2% 6.2% 6.4% 9.1% 8.2% 9.8% 10.8% 14.6% 12.2% 10.0% 4.0% 1.7% 0.8%
Zachary Vickerson 8.0% 7.4% 9.6% 10.2% 10.3% 13.0% 11.3% 10.6% 10.3% 6.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.0%
Sarah Hyman 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 2.3% 2.9% 3.9% 6.3% 9.6% 14.1% 18.3% 21.4% 14.7%
Julian Macrone 0.7% 0.5% 1.4% 0.5% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 4.8% 8.5% 16.1% 22.5% 35.8%
Peter Christensen 11.5% 11.8% 12.3% 13.1% 11.9% 9.6% 10.9% 9.2% 5.3% 3.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Tyler Durant 3.8% 4.1% 3.5% 4.4% 5.3% 8.4% 11.0% 12.1% 14.5% 13.9% 10.8% 6.2% 2.0%
Joshua Kegan 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 1.9% 1.4% 4.6% 4.1% 7.3% 11.7% 19.6% 20.9% 25.5%
Jack Hunger 3.3% 4.8% 5.0% 5.6% 7.9% 8.6% 10.6% 13.3% 15.4% 13.2% 7.6% 3.7% 1.0%
Kimberly Jackman 0.8% 0.7% 1.2% 1.6% 2.2% 2.3% 3.1% 4.7% 8.1% 13.8% 19.1% 22.4% 20.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.