Race 3A

firefly-fj-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Cameron Barclift 13.5% 13.0% 13.4% 12.7% 12.9% 11.0% 9.0% 8.1% 3.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Christopher Ford 23.2% 17.6% 17.1% 13.8% 11.7% 7.0% 4.9% 2.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Christensen 9.5% 13.2% 12.6% 13.1% 11.5% 12.6% 10.7% 8.4% 4.9% 2.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Christopher Jensen 12.9% 13.0% 13.1% 13.1% 13.0% 12.1% 10.4% 5.9% 4.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Zachary Vickerson 8.0% 8.1% 8.0% 11.0% 9.9% 11.0% 11.0% 13.4% 9.9% 6.0% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1%
Eric Anderson 14.6% 17.8% 14.7% 12.6% 12.3% 10.7% 7.5% 4.5% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Adam Brodheim 7.1% 5.3% 7.7% 7.9% 7.6% 10.1% 12.5% 12.5% 13.9% 8.3% 5.0% 1.9% 0.2%
Jack Hunger 4.6% 5.0% 4.8% 5.0% 7.4% 9.3% 11.1% 14.9% 15.3% 11.9% 7.6% 2.7% 0.4%
Sarah Hyman 1.1% 1.0% 2.0% 1.8% 3.1% 2.7% 3.1% 5.3% 8.0% 15.4% 19.1% 20.6% 16.8%
Tyler Durant 3.5% 3.7% 4.3% 5.6% 5.2% 7.9% 10.8% 11.8% 15.0% 15.3% 9.6% 5.1% 2.2%
Joshua Kegan 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 1.0% 1.7% 1.8% 3.5% 5.2% 7.5% 12.7% 18.3% 22.3% 24.1%
Kimberly Jackman 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 2.2% 2.2% 4.1% 4.8% 7.8% 13.1% 19.5% 22.7% 19.3%
Julian Macrone 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 2.6% 5.4% 8.8% 15.7% 23.5% 36.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.