Race 4A

firefly-fj-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Christopher Jensen 12.9% 13.3% 14.8% 11.9% 12.2% 11.9% 9.7% 6.4% 4.1% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Christensen 11.7% 12.0% 10.6% 13.3% 11.4% 14.1% 9.8% 7.4% 5.5% 2.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0%
Cameron Barclift 13.6% 13.1% 12.8% 12.8% 13.6% 12.1% 9.9% 6.0% 3.3% 2.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Zachary Vickerson 7.1% 8.2% 7.7% 10.9% 9.5% 11.1% 12.4% 12.4% 9.9% 6.5% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2%
Christopher Ford 23.8% 18.8% 18.0% 12.8% 10.0% 6.7% 5.5% 3.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jack Hunger 4.3% 5.0% 5.9% 6.7% 7.1% 8.6% 10.2% 12.8% 14.3% 13.3% 7.9% 3.4% 0.5%
Kimberly Jackman 1.3% 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6% 2.5% 4.1% 5.5% 9.1% 14.6% 17.3% 22.0% 17.4%
Adam Brodheim 6.4% 6.9% 4.6% 7.5% 9.4% 9.5% 13.1% 13.5% 14.4% 8.1% 4.8% 1.5% 0.3%
Julian Macrone 0.4% 0.7% 1.1% 1.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5.4% 7.1% 15.7% 23.6% 36.1%
Tyler Durant 3.9% 3.7% 4.6% 4.3% 6.1% 7.5% 8.8% 13.1% 14.4% 14.9% 10.3% 6.3% 2.1%
Sarah Hyman 1.1% 0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 3.3% 2.4% 4.3% 6.3% 9.2% 16.6% 21.0% 19.2% 13.0%
Joshua Kegan 0.3% 1.1% 0.5% 1.5% 1.6% 2.0% 2.5% 4.1% 5.7% 10.7% 17.4% 22.2% 30.4%
Eric Anderson 13.2% 15.3% 16.0% 14.4% 12.3% 9.6% 7.7% 6.3% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.