Race 5A

firefly-fj-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Eric Anderson 16.4% 14.5% 13.5% 13.3% 13.3% 11.5% 8.1% 5.1% 1.9% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Cameron Barclift 13.6% 13.7% 12.6% 14.0% 11.3% 12.2% 10.4% 6.0% 3.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1%
Zachary Vickerson 5.8% 8.3% 9.4% 9.3% 10.1% 12.0% 12.2% 13.1% 10.9% 5.7% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Christopher Jensen 12.2% 13.9% 12.7% 13.8% 13.6% 9.8% 9.0% 7.8% 5.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Tyler Durant 3.7% 4.3% 3.7% 5.9% 6.9% 7.4% 8.5% 12.6% 15.3% 15.4% 9.5% 5.8% 1.0%
Christopher Ford 23.1% 19.5% 17.5% 12.3% 10.6% 7.4% 4.7% 2.6% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jack Hunger 5.0% 4.7% 6.2% 8.1% 6.7% 7.3% 9.4% 15.1% 15.2% 10.5% 8.1% 3.1% 0.6%
Peter Christensen 11.5% 12.1% 13.1% 10.7% 12.7% 14.8% 11.0% 6.9% 4.1% 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Adam Brodheim 5.5% 5.9% 6.7% 7.3% 8.5% 9.0% 14.2% 13.9% 11.5% 9.7% 5.8% 1.9% 0.1%
Sarah Hyman 1.1% 1.1% 2.1% 1.9% 2.6% 2.5% 4.0% 4.7% 9.0% 14.8% 21.2% 20.3% 14.7%
Julian Macrone 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 2.0% 3.3% 3.1% 5.6% 11.4% 16.8% 22.6% 32.1%
Joshua Kegan 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 4.0% 7.3% 10.8% 16.0% 23.4% 29.8%
Kimberly Jackman 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 2.3% 3.1% 5.1% 8.8% 13.3% 18.6% 21.7% 21.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.