Race 8A

firefly-fj-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Tyler Durant 3.2% 4.0% 3.3% 5.1% 7.4% 6.2% 10.7% 12.1% 15.0% 15.9% 10.5% 5.0% 1.6%
Cameron Barclift 12.8% 14.2% 15.3% 12.7% 12.4% 10.4% 9.2% 6.1% 4.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Sarah Hyman 1.0% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 3.2% 3.4% 6.5% 9.5% 14.6% 20.6% 21.3% 14.9%
Adam Brodheim 4.7% 5.3% 6.9% 9.0% 8.6% 10.7% 11.9% 13.2% 14.0% 9.5% 4.5% 1.5% 0.2%
Eric Anderson 16.9% 15.2% 15.0% 12.4% 13.3% 10.2% 7.7% 5.7% 2.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Peter Christensen 12.0% 11.4% 13.5% 13.6% 11.6% 10.7% 10.1% 9.7% 4.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Jack Hunger 5.0% 5.3% 5.1% 6.0% 7.6% 9.1% 10.9% 12.5% 14.9% 13.6% 7.6% 1.9% 0.5%
Christopher Ford 22.0% 19.7% 16.1% 14.0% 12.6% 6.5% 5.2% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Christopher Jensen 12.3% 13.3% 13.4% 13.4% 11.3% 12.1% 9.5% 6.7% 4.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Zachary Vickerson 7.9% 8.7% 7.2% 9.2% 10.5% 13.9% 11.6% 10.3% 10.2% 5.8% 3.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Julian Macrone 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 3.6% 3.7% 6.6% 10.1% 15.4% 23.8% 32.0%
Kimberly Jackman 0.9% 0.7% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 3.3% 3.0% 7.3% 6.7% 11.4% 19.1% 23.0% 19.8%
Joshua Kegan 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 1.3% 1.0% 2.0% 3.2% 3.4% 7.2% 10.9% 16.7% 21.8% 30.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.