Race 9A

firefly-fj-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Christopher Ford 22.2% 19.0% 17.4% 13.0% 10.2% 8.7% 5.4% 2.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Eric Anderson 15.2% 14.8% 15.4% 13.7% 12.1% 9.0% 8.8% 6.0% 3.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Zachary Vickerson 6.2% 7.8% 8.5% 10.7% 9.3% 12.6% 11.7% 12.3% 11.2% 5.9% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Peter Christensen 12.0% 11.4% 12.3% 12.5% 11.3% 12.1% 11.3% 7.3% 6.5% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Christopher Jensen 14.0% 13.6% 13.2% 11.9% 12.8% 12.1% 9.4% 6.3% 4.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Jack Hunger 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 6.7% 7.4% 9.8% 10.4% 13.9% 14.3% 12.8% 7.2% 2.8% 0.4%
Cameron Barclift 15.0% 13.9% 11.1% 12.8% 14.6% 10.8% 9.3% 6.3% 4.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Sarah Hyman 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.9% 3.2% 3.0% 1.9% 5.7% 10.9% 15.1% 19.5% 21.2% 13.6%
Tyler Durant 2.7% 4.4% 4.3% 5.0% 5.6% 6.4% 8.4% 13.5% 15.5% 15.9% 11.7% 4.9% 1.7%
Julian Macrone 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 5.5% 10.4% 15.8% 20.4% 35.6%
Adam Brodheim 5.1% 7.1% 8.1% 7.4% 8.5% 9.4% 14.3% 13.8% 10.8% 9.9% 3.4% 1.6% 0.6%
Kimberly Jackman 0.7% 0.8% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 6.8% 13.0% 19.1% 22.2% 20.0%
Joshua Kegan 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 1.5% 1.1% 1.8% 2.5% 4.0% 5.8% 9.5% 18.1% 25.8% 27.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.