Race 10A

firefly-fj-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Christopher Ford 22.8% 18.7% 15.9% 14.1% 10.4% 8.4% 5.6% 2.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Zachary Vickerson 7.3% 7.3% 9.1% 8.0% 11.7% 12.0% 12.7% 10.8% 10.4% 6.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.1%
Eric Anderson 14.1% 16.7% 14.0% 12.4% 13.5% 11.2% 7.1% 6.8% 2.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Peter Christensen 12.3% 10.0% 13.8% 13.0% 11.8% 12.4% 9.6% 8.3% 5.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
Christopher Jensen 13.8% 13.7% 13.4% 11.7% 12.0% 12.3% 9.4% 7.0% 3.7% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Cameron Barclift 12.9% 14.5% 13.9% 14.3% 13.1% 9.5% 8.3% 6.5% 4.1% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1%
Jack Hunger 5.5% 4.5% 6.4% 7.0% 6.2% 8.4% 11.6% 13.0% 14.6% 11.5% 7.4% 3.5% 0.4%
Adam Brodheim 5.2% 6.8% 5.8% 8.0% 9.1% 10.3% 12.3% 14.8% 12.2% 9.0% 4.5% 1.4% 0.6%
Tyler Durant 3.0% 4.5% 4.0% 4.9% 5.5% 6.8% 10.0% 11.7% 16.5% 15.2% 11.4% 5.3% 1.2%
Joshua Kegan 0.5% 0.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 2.3% 3.5% 3.6% 5.7% 10.7% 17.5% 24.1% 26.9%
Sarah Hyman 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 2.3% 2.8% 2.7% 4.8% 6.9% 9.3% 17.0% 19.3% 19.0% 13.2%
Julian Macrone 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 2.2% 3.3% 6.4% 7.7% 14.4% 23.2% 37.6%
Kimberly Jackman 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 2.5% 2.9% 5.2% 7.5% 14.2% 19.9% 22.1% 19.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.