Race 4A

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Adam Ceely 8.7% 9.3% 7.9% 9.5% 7.7% 9.0% 7.9% 7.8% 8.1% 7.4% 4.9% 4.7% 3.7% 2.1% 1.3%
Peter Edmunds 11.6% 13.2% 10.8% 10.6% 9.2% 8.2% 8.5% 7.4% 6.1% 5.6% 4.0% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Patrick Penwell 5.9% 5.3% 6.5% 5.7% 7.5% 6.7% 7.5% 8.0% 8.0% 9.7% 7.8% 9.6% 5.3% 4.4% 2.1%
Scott Goodrich 8.6% 11.1% 8.4% 9.2% 7.6% 9.4% 8.6% 7.1% 7.9% 7.4% 5.7% 3.9% 2.6% 2.0% 0.5%
Alexander Rudkin 5.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.7% 5.8% 5.7% 6.5% 6.1% 8.1% 8.5% 10.0% 9.0% 9.2% 6.9% 5.1%
Kyle Brego 2.7% 2.5% 3.6% 3.4% 2.9% 4.3% 4.2% 5.1% 5.8% 7.7% 8.3% 10.5% 12.4% 15.0% 11.6%
Brendan Cook 14.5% 11.4% 12.6% 12.9% 11.2% 9.5% 7.6% 6.5% 4.5% 2.3% 3.0% 2.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Casey Gowrie 12.3% 12.7% 13.4% 9.0% 9.6% 9.3% 8.5% 7.7% 6.2% 4.0% 3.2% 2.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2%
Marly Isler 9.4% 10.0% 10.4% 9.8% 9.7% 9.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 6.0% 4.8% 3.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1%
William Dykes 2.7% 1.9% 2.1% 3.1% 2.5% 3.8% 4.5% 5.4% 6.1% 6.1% 8.7% 10.2% 12.8% 14.3% 15.8%
MacKenzie MacRae 2.0% 2.5% 1.6% 3.2% 3.3% 4.6% 3.5% 5.4% 5.0% 7.6% 6.2% 9.1% 13.7% 13.6% 18.7%
Michael Rottier 4.1% 2.8% 3.6% 5.9% 7.1% 4.7% 6.1% 8.8% 7.1% 7.9% 11.2% 9.5% 8.1% 8.3% 4.8%
Maxime Fecteau 1.6% 0.9% 3.0% 1.7% 2.4% 2.9% 3.9% 3.5% 3.7% 5.2% 6.7% 8.1% 11.4% 17.6% 27.4%
Robert Lippincott 7.7% 8.5% 8.2% 8.5% 8.8% 7.9% 9.4% 8.5% 7.0% 6.9% 7.4% 5.2% 3.3% 1.8% 0.9%
Rinchen Harrison 3.2% 3.1% 3.3% 2.8% 4.7% 4.5% 5.3% 4.5% 8.1% 7.7% 8.1% 9.8% 12.1% 11.4% 11.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.