Race 1B

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Jesse Thomas 10.1% 12.6% 12.7% 9.5% 9.8% 10.6% 8.7% 7.5% 5.8% 5.6% 3.3% 2.2% 1.2% 0.4%
Myles Gibbs 0.8% 1.7% 1.6% 2.3% 2.4% 4.0% 3.0% 3.2% 5.8% 5.3% 7.3% 10.4% 18.1% 34.1%
Camden Tougas 8.2% 8.8% 7.3% 8.4% 6.8% 9.0% 8.8% 10.5% 8.5% 9.4% 6.5% 5.0% 2.0% 0.8%
Conor Fowler 12.4% 12.4% 12.0% 13.4% 10.6% 10.7% 7.3% 6.9% 4.9% 5.0% 2.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0%
John Silvestri 10.9% 11.1% 12.8% 12.0% 9.8% 9.1% 9.2% 6.7% 6.1% 6.3% 3.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Matthew Lyons 17.4% 13.9% 15.7% 11.2% 11.2% 8.3% 7.9% 6.1% 4.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
John Bishara 2.6% 1.9% 3.2% 3.2% 3.8% 4.7% 5.1% 6.4% 5.0% 8.9% 10.6% 13.1% 18.0% 13.5%
Rachel Perry 9.2% 8.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.3% 7.9% 10.9% 8.0% 8.2% 7.3% 6.2% 3.7% 2.0% 0.8%
William Feldman 4.1% 2.9% 3.4% 3.7% 4.9% 4.2% 6.3% 8.5% 8.5% 11.1% 12.1% 12.6% 10.9% 6.8%
John Cappetta 6.7% 5.5% 5.7% 8.3% 8.8% 8.2% 9.1% 8.3% 8.9% 9.2% 9.5% 6.4% 4.4% 1.0%
Ocean Kane 3.7% 4.2% 3.0% 4.6% 5.6% 5.6% 6.6% 7.5% 9.8% 8.8% 12.8% 11.7% 8.4% 7.7%
Caroline Atwood 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 2.5% 3.2% 2.5% 3.2% 4.1% 6.5% 5.7% 9.4% 15.0% 18.2% 25.0%
Ann Sager 2.9% 3.8% 2.8% 3.6% 3.6% 5.4% 5.5% 6.3% 8.4% 10.0% 11.3% 13.1% 14.1% 9.2%
Benjamin Craig 9.6% 11.1% 9.1% 8.3% 10.2% 9.8% 8.4% 10.0% 9.5% 5.2% 4.2% 2.8% 1.4% 0.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.