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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.70+3.84vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.32+4.02vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.16+2.50vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.44+2.33vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20-1.28vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.560.00vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.35-1.33vs Predicted
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8Washington College0.20+1.05vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.10-2.61vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College0.13-0.40vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.90-3.54vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia-0.58-0.64vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.79-1.36vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-0.66-2.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.84Cornell University1.7013.0%1st Place
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6.02George Washington University1.329.4%1st Place
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5.5U. S. Naval Academy2.169.4%1st Place
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6.33Old Dominion University1.447.2%1st Place
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3.72Georgetown University2.2021.6%1st Place
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6.0University of Pennsylvania1.568.5%1st Place
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5.67St. Mary's College of Maryland1.3510.1%1st Place
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9.05Washington College0.203.5%1st Place
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6.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.107.0%1st Place
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9.6SUNY Maritime College0.132.1%1st Place
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7.46Fordham University0.905.3%1st Place
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11.36University of Virginia-0.580.9%1st Place
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11.64Princeton University-0.791.1%1st Place
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11.42Syracuse University-0.660.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
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Brooke Shachoy | 13.0% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Emma AuBuchon | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
Olivia de Olazarra | 9.4% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Bridget Groble | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
Piper Holthus | 21.6% | 18.1% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Amanda Majernik | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
Katherine Bennett | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Kennedy Jones | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 5.5% |
Camille McGriff | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
Clara Guarascio | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 14.7% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 6.8% |
Payton Canavan | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
Hannah Mercurio | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 15.1% | 22.1% | 26.2% |
Bracklinn Williams | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 14.6% | 20.8% | 32.8% |
Maren Behnke | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 15.7% | 22.9% | 26.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.