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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.72+4.51vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.32+4.04vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+0.72vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.90+3.65vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.70-0.15vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.44+0.33vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.10-0.57vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.13+1.54vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.16-3.61vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.35-4.19vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-0.58+0.43vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.20-2.66vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.79-1.36vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-0.66-2.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.51University of Pennsylvania1.729.4%1st Place
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6.04George Washington University1.329.1%1st Place
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3.72Georgetown University2.2020.7%1st Place
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7.65Fordham University0.904.4%1st Place
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4.85Cornell University1.7014.2%1st Place
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6.33Old Dominion University1.447.6%1st Place
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6.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.106.7%1st Place
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9.54SUNY Maritime College0.132.5%1st Place
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5.39U. S. Naval Academy2.1610.7%1st Place
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5.81St. Mary's College of Maryland1.358.7%1st Place
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11.43University of Virginia-0.581.1%1st Place
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9.34Washington College0.202.6%1st Place
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11.64Princeton University-0.791.2%1st Place
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11.33Syracuse University-0.661.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 9.4% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 20.7% | 17.9% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Payton Canavan | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 14.2% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Groble | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Camille McGriff | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Clara Guarascio | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 14.2% | 16.1% | 12.8% | 7.5% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Bennett | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 15.2% | 21.9% | 28.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 15.0% | 11.7% | 5.1% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 22.7% | 30.6% |
| Maren Behnke | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 21.8% | 25.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.