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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University1.44+5.32vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.32+3.95vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+0.71vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.72+1.45vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.70-0.16vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.35-0.17vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.90+0.64vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.16-2.46vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.10-2.39vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College0.13-0.41vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-0.58+0.41vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.20-2.73vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-0.66-1.68vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.79-2.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32Old Dominion University1.447.8%1st Place
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5.95George Washington University1.328.2%1st Place
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3.71Georgetown University2.2021.8%1st Place
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5.45University of Pennsylvania1.7210.2%1st Place
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4.84Cornell University1.7012.2%1st Place
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5.83St. Mary's College of Maryland1.358.9%1st Place
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7.64Fordham University0.905.2%1st Place
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5.54U. S. Naval Academy2.1610.4%1st Place
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6.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.106.7%1st Place
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9.59SUNY Maritime College0.132.2%1st Place
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11.41University of Virginia-0.581.3%1st Place
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9.27Washington College0.202.8%1st Place
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11.32Syracuse University-0.661.2%1st Place
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11.52Princeton University-0.790.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
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Bridget Groble | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
Emma AuBuchon | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Piper Holthus | 21.8% | 17.5% | 14.7% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Torrey Chisari | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
Brooke Shachoy | 12.2% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Katherine Bennett | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
Payton Canavan | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
Olivia de Olazarra | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Camille McGriff | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
Clara Guarascio | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 12.2% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 7.8% |
Hannah Mercurio | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 15.7% | 21.0% | 28.6% |
Kennedy Jones | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 17.0% | 11.4% | 5.0% |
Maren Behnke | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 16.6% | 20.5% | 26.8% |
Bracklinn Williams | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 22.9% | 30.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.