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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University1.44+5.31vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.70+2.63vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+0.75vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.90+3.50vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.56+1.01vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30+0.84vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.35-1.48vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.32-2.05vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.16-3.63vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.58+1.29vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.20-1.69vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.79-0.37vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-0.66-1.69vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.13-4.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.31Old Dominion University1.447.6%1st Place
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4.63Cornell University1.7014.6%1st Place
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3.75Georgetown University2.2020.1%1st Place
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7.5Fordham University0.905.5%1st Place
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6.01University of Pennsylvania1.568.8%1st Place
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6.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.305.5%1st Place
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5.52St. Mary's College of Maryland1.3510.6%1st Place
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5.95George Washington University1.328.3%1st Place
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5.37U. S. Naval Academy2.1611.2%1st Place
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11.29University of Virginia-0.580.9%1st Place
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9.31Washington College0.202.8%1st Place
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11.63Princeton University-0.790.9%1st Place
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11.31Syracuse University-0.661.2%1st Place
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9.59SUNY Maritime College0.132.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Groble | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 14.6% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 20.1% | 18.3% | 15.8% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payton Canavan | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Amanda Majernik | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Ella Withington | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Katherine Bennett | 10.6% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 9.7% | 15.8% | 21.5% | 25.9% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 15.2% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 5.6% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 14.4% | 21.9% | 31.6% |
| Maren Behnke | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 21.1% | 27.6% |
| Clara Guarascio | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 15.7% | 12.6% | 6.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.