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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+3.63vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+2.91vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+0.41vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.24+2.77vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.29+0.67vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.04-1.81vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.95-0.12vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-1.25vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia-0.87+2.31vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.13-3.24vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.32-1.05vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.68-1.07vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.72-0.23vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.32-3.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.63University of Pennsylvania1.7713.2%1st Place
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4.91St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7611.5%1st Place
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3.41Cornell University2.3822.8%1st Place
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6.77George Washington University1.245.1%1st Place
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5.67Georgetown University1.298.6%1st Place
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4.19U. S. Naval Academy2.0416.4%1st Place
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6.88Old Dominion University0.955.7%1st Place
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6.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.975.3%1st Place
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11.31University of Virginia-0.870.6%1st Place
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6.76Fordham University1.135.8%1st Place
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9.95SUNY Maritime College-0.322.1%1st Place
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10.93Washington College-0.681.1%1st Place
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12.77Syracuse University-1.720.4%1st Place
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10.09Princeton University-0.321.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 13.2% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 11.5% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 22.8% | 20.1% | 16.8% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Sailer | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 16.4% | 15.8% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 12.3% | 19.2% | 26.2% | 16.6% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Essex | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 12.0% | 18.6% | 17.5% | 13.6% | 5.8% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 17.6% | 23.2% | 13.9% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 9.9% | 17.4% | 56.8% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 16.8% | 19.2% | 14.8% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.