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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.38+2.47vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.59vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+2.00vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.95+2.74vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.04-0.71vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.29-0.36vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.24-0.26vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.13-1.43vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-2.22vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College-0.32+0.16vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-0.87+0.31vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-1.72+0.75vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.32-2.92vs Predicted
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14Washington College-0.68-3.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.47Cornell University2.3823.2%1st Place
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4.59University of Pennsylvania1.7713.7%1st Place
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5.0St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7610.6%1st Place
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6.74Old Dominion University0.956.3%1st Place
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4.29U. S. Naval Academy2.0415.4%1st Place
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5.64Georgetown University1.298.3%1st Place
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6.74George Washington University1.245.1%1st Place
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6.57Fordham University1.136.3%1st Place
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6.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.975.9%1st Place
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10.16SUNY Maritime College-0.321.1%1st Place
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11.31University of Virginia-0.870.7%1st Place
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12.75Syracuse University-1.720.5%1st Place
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10.08Princeton University-0.321.6%1st Place
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10.86Washington College-0.681.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 23.2% | 18.4% | 16.6% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 13.7% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 10.6% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 15.4% | 15.3% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 16.4% | 18.1% | 16.4% | 6.0% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 17.8% | 26.4% | 17.4% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 10.7% | 16.7% | 56.7% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 18.1% | 18.9% | 13.9% | 5.8% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 18.1% | 22.4% | 13.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.