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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+3.53vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+1.40vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.24+3.72vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+2.76vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.04-0.72vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College-0.32+4.12vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.95-0.42vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University1.29-2.34vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-4.02vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.13-3.25vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.68-0.08vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia-0.87-0.64vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.72-0.27vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.32-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.53University of Pennsylvania1.7714.1%1st Place
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3.4Cornell University2.3823.1%1st Place
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6.72George Washington University1.245.9%1st Place
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6.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.975.1%1st Place
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4.28U. S. Naval Academy2.0415.0%1st Place
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10.12SUNY Maritime College-0.321.5%1st Place
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6.58Old Dominion University0.955.5%1st Place
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5.66Georgetown University1.298.5%1st Place
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4.98St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7611.8%1st Place
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6.75Fordham University1.136.2%1st Place
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10.92Washington College-0.681.1%1st Place
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11.36University of Virginia-0.870.8%1st Place
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12.73Syracuse University-1.720.3%1st Place
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10.21Princeton University-0.321.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 14.1% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 23.1% | 18.4% | 16.9% | 14.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 15.0% | 14.9% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 17.8% | 17.7% | 15.4% | 6.4% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Sailer | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 20.3% | 21.6% | 11.8% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 19.8% | 24.0% | 18.4% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 16.8% | 56.5% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 16.7% | 17.8% | 17.1% | 6.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.