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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.38+2.43vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.04+2.17vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University0.95+3.71vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.77+0.64vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.24+1.77vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.29-0.26vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College-0.32+3.09vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-1.30vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.13-2.37vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-4.90vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.68-0.15vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-1.72+0.62vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia-0.87-1.65vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.32-3.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.43Cornell University2.3822.4%1st Place
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4.17U. S. Naval Academy2.0414.5%1st Place
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6.71Old Dominion University0.956.0%1st Place
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4.64University of Pennsylvania1.7713.7%1st Place
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6.77George Washington University1.245.8%1st Place
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5.74Georgetown University1.298.6%1st Place
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10.09SUNY Maritime College-0.321.9%1st Place
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6.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.976.3%1st Place
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6.63Fordham University1.137.2%1st Place
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5.1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7610.3%1st Place
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10.85Washington College-0.680.8%1st Place
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12.62Syracuse University-1.720.5%1st Place
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11.35University of Virginia-0.870.9%1st Place
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10.2Princeton University-0.321.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 22.4% | 18.8% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 14.5% | 15.6% | 16.8% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Sofia Segalla | 13.7% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Sailer | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 16.5% | 18.1% | 15.2% | 7.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Madison Bashaw | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 14.7% | 18.6% | 20.0% | 13.7% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 18.9% | 52.8% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 19.3% | 25.1% | 19.1% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 17.2% | 18.1% | 16.2% | 6.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.