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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University0.95+5.59vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.13+4.73vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+1.73vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.24+2.85vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.90+0.02vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.04-1.87vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-0.26vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.77-3.57vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University1.37-3.12vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.32+0.31vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.68+0.05vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia0.06-2.46vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.72-0.12vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.32-3.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59Old Dominion University0.956.9%1st Place
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6.73Fordham University1.136.5%1st Place
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4.73St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7613.2%1st Place
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6.85George Washington University1.245.4%1st Place
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5.02Cornell University1.9013.1%1st Place
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4.13U. S. Naval Academy2.0417.2%1st Place
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6.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.976.7%1st Place
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4.43University of Pennsylvania1.7715.0%1st Place
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5.88Georgetown University1.378.6%1st Place
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10.31Princeton University-0.321.7%1st Place
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11.05Washington College-0.681.1%1st Place
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9.54University of Virginia0.062.5%1st Place
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12.88Syracuse University-1.720.4%1st Place
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10.13SUNY Maritime College-0.321.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Gildea | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Madison Bashaw | 13.2% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Lilly Myers | 13.1% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 17.2% | 16.7% | 14.9% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Sofia Segalla | 15.0% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Riley Kloc | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 18.0% | 20.5% | 8.6% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 15.6% | 26.2% | 17.2% |
| Emma Sullivan | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 17.5% | 13.1% | 4.0% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 8.5% | 15.4% | 61.4% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 19.7% | 18.1% | 7.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.