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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+5.92vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+3.10vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.04+1.24vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.77+0.65vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.29+0.84vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.95+0.92vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.38-3.54vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.13-1.17vs Predicted
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9Washington College-0.68+2.18vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.24-3.21vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia0.06-1.44vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.32-1.73vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.72-0.11vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.32-3.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.975.2%1st Place
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5.1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7611.4%1st Place
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4.24U. S. Naval Academy2.0416.2%1st Place
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4.65University of Pennsylvania1.7713.2%1st Place
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5.84Georgetown University1.298.2%1st Place
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6.92Old Dominion University0.955.3%1st Place
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3.46Cornell University2.3822.1%1st Place
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6.83Fordham University1.136.1%1st Place
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11.18Washington College-0.680.8%1st Place
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6.79George Washington University1.245.6%1st Place
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9.56University of Virginia0.062.5%1st Place
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10.27Princeton University-0.321.5%1st Place
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12.89Syracuse University-1.720.2%1st Place
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10.36SUNY Maritime College-0.321.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Madison Bashaw | 11.4% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 16.2% | 14.2% | 15.3% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 13.2% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Bridget Green | 22.1% | 20.7% | 15.0% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 16.6% | 25.8% | 17.3% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Emma Sullivan | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 15.5% | 17.2% | 12.3% | 4.3% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 20.0% | 19.1% | 7.5% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 15.0% | 62.5% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 18.6% | 21.4% | 7.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.