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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+5.82vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.29+3.88vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+2.09vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.95+2.80vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.38-1.43vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.04-1.59vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.24-0.04vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.13-1.27vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia0.06+0.53vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.32+0.30vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.68+0.12vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.77-7.37vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.72-0.14vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.32-3.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.975.9%1st Place
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5.88Georgetown University1.297.6%1st Place
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5.09St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7611.4%1st Place
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6.8Old Dominion University0.956.2%1st Place
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3.57Cornell University2.3821.4%1st Place
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4.41U. S. Naval Academy2.0415.4%1st Place
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6.96George Washington University1.245.9%1st Place
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6.73Fordham University1.136.3%1st Place
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9.53University of Virginia0.061.7%1st Place
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10.3Princeton University-0.321.7%1st Place
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11.12Washington College-0.681.1%1st Place
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4.63University of Pennsylvania1.7713.2%1st Place
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12.86Syracuse University-1.720.3%1st Place
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10.32SUNY Maritime College-0.321.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Morgan Sailer | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Madison Bashaw | 11.4% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Green | 21.4% | 20.2% | 16.1% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 15.4% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Emma Sullivan | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 16.2% | 15.8% | 13.1% | 3.4% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 19.2% | 19.4% | 8.6% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 19.2% | 25.6% | 16.8% |
| Sofia Segalla | 13.2% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 61.5% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 17.5% | 20.2% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.