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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.90+3.85vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.45+3.17vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.29+2.42vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.04-0.07vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+1.49vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-1.31vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.54+1.52vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.95-1.48vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.24-2.63vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.32+0.04vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia0.06-1.78vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.68-0.98vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.72-0.23vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.32-4.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.85Cornell University1.9012.7%1st Place
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5.17University of Pennsylvania1.4511.3%1st Place
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5.42Georgetown University1.2910.2%1st Place
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3.93U. S. Naval Academy2.0418.9%1st Place
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6.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.977.3%1st Place
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4.69St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7613.1%1st Place
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8.52Fordham University0.543.9%1st Place
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6.52Old Dominion University0.957.3%1st Place
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6.37George Washington University1.247.7%1st Place
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10.04Princeton University-0.321.8%1st Place
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9.22University of Virginia0.062.4%1st Place
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11.02Washington College-0.680.7%1st Place
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12.77Syracuse University-1.720.7%1st Place
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9.97SUNY Maritime College-0.322.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lilly Myers | 12.7% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Madeleine Rice | 11.3% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Morgan Sailer | 10.2% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Eva Blauvelt | 18.9% | 16.8% | 15.0% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heather Kerns | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
Madison Bashaw | 13.1% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Caroline Sandoval | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 2.2% |
Elizabeth Gildea | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
Chiara Perotti Correa | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
Carly Mraz | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 16.7% | 18.1% | 7.9% |
Emma Sullivan | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 15.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% |
Hartley Meyer | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 16.6% | 25.9% | 15.8% |
Erin Splaine | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 8.2% | 14.5% | 61.5% |
Morgan Essex | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 16.6% | 17.2% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.