Race 14A

thompson-throphy

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Robert Bragg 12.4% 11.3% 11.7% 9.8% 10.2% 9.5% 7.3% 7.6% 6.5% 4.2% 3.5% 2.6% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Connor Nelson 10.9% 9.7% 10.5% 9.9% 8.8% 7.6% 7.8% 8.4% 5.5% 6.0% 5.1% 3.9% 2.9% 1.9% 0.9%
Shawn Harvey 11.1% 11.9% 11.2% 10.1% 9.7% 8.6% 7.5% 6.6% 5.8% 6.1% 4.2% 3.0% 2.5% 1.4% 0.4%
Matthew Kickhafer 3.4% 3.7% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5% 4.9% 4.3% 5.5% 6.8% 6.2% 8.6% 9.2% 8.8% 11.1% 15.3%
Aidan naughton 3.3% 3.4% 3.9% 4.2% 4.8% 4.3% 4.5% 3.9% 5.3% 6.6% 6.6% 8.8% 10.8% 12.6% 17.2%
CJ Mckenna 5.9% 5.8% 6.0% 6.5% 5.7% 6.6% 5.8% 6.9% 7.0% 8.5% 7.1% 7.3% 7.5% 7.8% 5.9%
Atlee Kohl 8.6% 8.8% 7.0% 7.7% 6.2% 8.2% 7.5% 6.9% 7.3% 7.5% 7.4% 5.8% 4.3% 4.3% 2.5%
Cordelia Burn 6.1% 5.9% 6.8% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 7.8% 6.6% 8.0% 7.6% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.2% 3.5%
Christian Spencer 4.8% 4.7% 5.9% 6.2% 6.5% 6.0% 7.5% 6.6% 6.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.0% 7.8% 8.7% 6.2%
Sam Bruce 9.3% 8.0% 6.2% 7.8% 9.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.0% 7.5% 5.6% 6.1% 5.5% 4.7% 3.6% 2.0%
Zachariah Schemel 3.2% 2.9% 4.0% 4.2% 4.7% 4.7% 5.4% 5.5% 5.7% 7.2% 6.8% 8.8% 9.6% 11.6% 15.7%
Samuel Merson 6.4% 7.4% 6.6% 6.2% 6.8% 7.4% 8.0% 7.3% 7.4% 7.3% 8.1% 6.3% 5.9% 5.1% 3.6%
Grant Gridley 5.2% 5.1% 5.9% 5.9% 5.5% 6.3% 6.2% 6.4% 7.0% 6.3% 6.7% 8.1% 8.8% 8.8% 8.0%
Clayton Snyder 4.0% 4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 3.9% 5.5% 5.4% 6.2% 6.1% 6.0% 7.3% 9.7% 10.0% 10.2% 12.4%
Jack DeNatale 5.3% 6.8% 6.0% 6.7% 6.8% 5.5% 6.6% 7.8% 7.4% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0% 8.0% 5.9% 6.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.