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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Buffalo2.44+4.96vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.71+6.35vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.16+0.99vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.78+4.40vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.10+2.21vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.87+2.04vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-2.34vs Predicted
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8Columbia University2.55-2.47vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.74-0.70vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University1.40-0.34vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.68-2.43vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.72-3.47vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.70-1.36vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester0.81-2.68vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester0.81-3.68vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy1.22-5.76vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-1.75-1.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.96University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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8.35Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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3.99University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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8.4Queen's University1.780.0%1st Place
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7.21SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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8.04SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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4.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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5.53Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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8.3Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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9.66Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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8.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.680.1%1st Place
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8.53Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
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11.64Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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11.32University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
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11.32University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
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10.24U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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15.6SUNY Stony Brook-1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Orr | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 19.9% | 15.7% | 16.1% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 16.1% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 11.4% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Scott Calnan | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Johanna Monro | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ted Wingender | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 25.3% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 23.8% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 23.8% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Emily Brownawell | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 88.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.