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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.16+2.93vs Predicted
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2University of Buffalo2.44+3.97vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.53vs Predicted
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4Columbia University2.55+1.84vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.71+3.53vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.10+1.22vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.87+1.03vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.78+0.14vs Predicted
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9U. S. Military Academy1.22+1.07vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester0.81+1.55vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.74-2.59vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College0.70-0.31vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University1.40-3.48vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.72-5.66vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.68-6.38vs Predicted
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16University of Rochester0.81-4.45vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-1.75-1.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.93University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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5.97University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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4.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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5.84Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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8.53Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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7.22SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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8.03SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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8.14Queen's University1.780.0%1st Place
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10.07U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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11.55University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
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8.41Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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11.69Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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9.52Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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8.34Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
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8.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.680.0%1st Place
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11.55University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
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15.61SUNY Stony Brook-1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Swikart | 20.3% | 18.0% | 14.4% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 16.4% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 8.9% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 6.4% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 18.0% | 22.5% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ted Wingender | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 16.5% | 26.1% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Johanna Monro | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Scott Calnan | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 18.0% | 22.5% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Emily Brownawell | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 5.4% | 87.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.