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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.10+6.03vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+2.56vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.68+5.56vs Predicted
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4Ocean County College0.70+7.76vs Predicted
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5University of Buffalo2.44+1.09vs Predicted
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6Columbia University2.55-0.23vs Predicted
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7Queen's University1.78+1.29vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.71+0.38vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester0.81+2.36vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.74-1.50vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.72-2.57vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania3.16-7.97vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester0.81-1.64vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.87-6.09vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University1.40-5.54vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy1.22-5.75vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-1.75-1.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.03SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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4.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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8.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.680.0%1st Place
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11.76Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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6.09University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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5.77Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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8.29Queen's University1.780.0%1st Place
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8.38Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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11.36University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
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8.5Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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8.43Fordham University1.720.1%1st Place
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4.03University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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11.36University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
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7.91SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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9.46Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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10.25U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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15.61SUNY Stony Brook-1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Nilsen | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 15.9% | 16.6% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Calnan | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ted Wingender | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 27.5% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 9.9% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 4.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 17.0% | 22.2% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Johanna Monro | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 19.4% | 17.5% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 17.0% | 22.2% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 3.7% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 15.4% | 10.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Emily Brownawell | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 6.3% | 87.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.