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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech0.67+1.36vs Predicted
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2American University-0.61+2.49vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.13+0.49vs Predicted
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4Catholic University of America-1.85+2.07vs Predicted
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5University of Maryland-0.08-1.23vs Predicted
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6William and Mary-0.27-2.04vs Predicted
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7Penn State University-1.01-1.59vs Predicted
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8University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.43-1.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.36Virginia Tech0.6735.5%1st Place
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4.49American University-0.618.9%1st Place
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3.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.1317.5%1st Place
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6.07Catholic University of America-1.853.8%1st Place
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3.77University of Maryland-0.0814.4%1st Place
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3.96William and Mary-0.2712.1%1st Place
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5.41Penn State University-1.015.2%1st Place
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6.46University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.432.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Lilyquist | 35.5% | 25.1% | 19.0% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Brooke Lorson | 8.9% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 16.0% | 16.2% | 13.2% | 6.2% |
| Robert Finora | 17.5% | 17.1% | 18.1% | 17.3% | 13.9% | 10.0% | 4.9% | 1.4% |
| John Anthony Caraig | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 23.6% | 30.6% |
| Jared Cohen | 14.4% | 15.8% | 16.4% | 17.2% | 15.3% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 1.8% |
| Meredith Endres | 12.1% | 15.0% | 15.4% | 16.8% | 16.7% | 13.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% |
| Nathan Mascia | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 19.1% | 22.4% | 14.9% |
| John TIS | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 20.6% | 42.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.