← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Columbia University2.55+4.61vs Predicted
-
2University of Buffalo2.44+3.99vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.50vs Predicted
-
4University of Rochester0.81+7.47vs Predicted
-
5Queen's University1.78+3.28vs Predicted
-
6SUNY Maritime College2.10+1.23vs Predicted
-
7Cornell University1.74+1.46vs Predicted
-
8University of Pennsylvania3.16-4.05vs Predicted
-
9Webb Institute1.71-0.58vs Predicted
-
10Ocean County College0.70+1.77vs Predicted
-
11SUNY Maritime College1.87-3.09vs Predicted
-
12Fordham University1.72-3.54vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Stony Brook-1.75+2.59vs Predicted
-
14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.68-5.49vs Predicted
-
15University of Rochester0.81-3.53vs Predicted
-
16U. S. Military Academy1.22-5.79vs Predicted
-
17Syracuse University1.40-7.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.61Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
-
5.99University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
-
4.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
-
11.47University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
-
8.28Queen's University1.780.1%1st Place
-
7.23SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
-
8.46Cornell University1.740.1%1st Place
-
3.95University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
-
8.42Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
-
11.77Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
-
7.91SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
-
8.46Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
-
15.59SUNY Stony Brook-1.750.0%1st Place
-
8.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.680.0%1st Place
-
11.47University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
-
10.21U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
-
9.64Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Cashel | 9.9% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 9.0% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 16.3% | 14.1% | 14.6% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 24.4% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 5.6% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 19.9% | 18.8% | 14.3% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ted Wingender | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 25.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Johanna Monro | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Emily Brownawell | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 87.5% | 0.0% |
| Scott Calnan | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 24.4% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.