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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.10+5.91vs Predicted
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2University of Buffalo2.44+3.92vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.49vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.68+4.58vs Predicted
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5Columbia University2.55+0.64vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.16-2.00vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.87+0.82vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.72+0.23vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.13+1.23vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester0.81+1.35vs Predicted
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11Queen's University1.78-2.96vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University1.40-2.56vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.74-4.80vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy1.22-4.10vs Predicted
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15Ocean County College0.70-3.32vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-1.75-0.42vs Predicted
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17University of Rochester0.81-5.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.91SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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5.92University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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4.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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8.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.680.0%1st Place
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5.64Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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4.0University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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7.82SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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8.23Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
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10.23Webb Institute1.130.0%1st Place
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11.35University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
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8.04Queen's University1.780.1%1st Place
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9.44Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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8.2Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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9.9U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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11.68Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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15.58SUNY Stony Brook-1.750.0%1st Place
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11.35University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Nilsen | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 16.1% | 13.2% | 14.5% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Calnan | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 9.5% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 19.6% | 18.6% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Johanna Monro | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| James Codega | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 16.5% | 19.8% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 3.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Ted Wingender | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 17.5% | 24.9% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Emily Brownawell | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 5.4% | 87.4% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 16.5% | 19.8% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.