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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Buffalo2.44+4.83vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.68+6.33vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.16+0.94vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+0.57vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.74+3.33vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.87+1.89vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.72+1.40vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University1.40+1.28vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.13+1.21vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy1.22+0.12vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.81+0.25vs Predicted
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12Columbia University2.55-6.40vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.10-6.02vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College0.70-2.50vs Predicted
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15Queen's University1.78-6.80vs Predicted
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16University of Rochester0.81-4.75vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-1.75-1.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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8.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.680.0%1st Place
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3.94University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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4.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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8.33Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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7.89SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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8.4Fordham University1.720.1%1st Place
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9.28Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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10.21Webb Institute1.130.0%1st Place
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10.12U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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11.25University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
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5.6Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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6.98SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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11.5Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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8.2Queen's University1.780.1%1st Place
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11.25University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
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15.57SUNY Stony Brook-1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Orr | 9.9% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Calnan | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 20.9% | 15.7% | 15.2% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 15.4% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Johanna Monro | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| James Codega | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 16.0% | 20.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 10.2% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Wingender | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 24.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 16.0% | 20.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Emily Brownawell | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 6.1% | 86.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.