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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Buffalo2.44+4.83vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.87+5.71vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.45vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.74+4.39vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.10+2.01vs Predicted
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6Queen's University1.78+2.20vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.68+1.53vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester0.81+3.17vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania3.16-5.07vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College0.70+1.64vs Predicted
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11Columbia University2.55-5.39vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester0.81-0.83vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.72-4.69vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University1.40-4.62vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy1.22-5.13vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.13-5.60vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-1.75-1.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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7.71SUNY Maritime College1.870.0%1st Place
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4.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.2%1st Place
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8.39Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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7.01SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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8.2Queen's University1.780.0%1st Place
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8.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.680.0%1st Place
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11.17University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
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3.93University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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11.64Ocean County College0.700.0%1st Place
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5.61Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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11.17University of Rochester0.810.0%1st Place
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8.31Fordham University1.720.1%1st Place
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9.38Syracuse University1.400.0%1st Place
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9.87U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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10.4Webb Institute1.130.0%1st Place
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15.57SUNY Stony Brook-1.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Orr | 10.3% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Libby | 4.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 17.2% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Machum | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Calnan | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 15.6% | 21.1% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 20.6% | 19.2% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Wingender | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 24.0% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 11.7% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Romanowsky | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 15.6% | 21.1% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Johanna Monro | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Murphy | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| James Codega | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Emily Brownawell | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 5.1% | 87.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.