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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
5.9
Avg Position Diff
27
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+10.40vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii3.68+3.01vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii3.04+4.28vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.64+4.80vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.06+6.44vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis0.45+13.77vs Predicted
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7University of Washington2.79+1.19vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley1.32+7.14vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California1.52+5.29vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.63-4.96vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy3.09-4.17vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay1.63+2.14vs Predicted
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13Santa Clara University1.01+4.08vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands0.37+6.13vs Predicted
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15Stanford University2.92-7.36vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine1.35-0.59vs Predicted
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17University of British Columbia0.19+3.78vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles0.52+1.38vs Predicted
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19University of California at Santa Cruz1.12-2.45vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego1.81-7.33vs Predicted
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21Northwestern University1.16-4.50vs Predicted
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22University of Oregon0.76-3.77vs Predicted
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23University of Oregon0.46-3.47vs Predicted
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24Oregon State University1.52-9.86vs Predicted
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25Western Washington University0.90-7.34vs Predicted
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26University of Southern California2.93-18.01vs Predicted
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27California State University Monterey Bay1.63-12.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.4University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.0%1st Place
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5.01University of Hawaii3.680.1%1st Place
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7.28University of Hawaii3.040.1%1st Place
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8.8University of Southern California2.640.1%1st Place
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11.44University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.0%1st Place
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19.77University of California at Davis0.450.0%1st Place
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8.19University of Washington2.790.1%1st Place
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15.14University of California at Berkeley1.320.0%1st Place
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14.29University of Southern California1.520.0%1st Place
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5.04Stanford University3.630.2%1st Place
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6.83California Poly Maritime Academy3.090.1%1st Place
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14.14California State University Monterey Bay1.630.0%1st Place
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17.08Santa Clara University1.010.0%1st Place
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20.13California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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7.64Stanford University2.920.1%1st Place
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15.41University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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20.78University of British Columbia0.190.0%1st Place
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19.38University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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16.55University of California at Santa Cruz1.120.0%1st Place
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12.67University of California at San Diego1.810.0%1st Place
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16.5Northwestern University1.160.0%1st Place
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18.23University of Oregon0.760.0%1st Place
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19.53University of Oregon0.460.0%1st Place
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14.14Oregon State University1.520.0%1st Place
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17.66Western Washington University0.900.0%1st Place
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7.99University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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14.14California State University Monterey Bay1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Stokes | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Pokras | 14.0% | 15.1% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kennedy | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Hutcheson | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Emberley | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Haelsig | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jan Tore Horn | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Lily Katz | 16.1% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Vilicich | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Melissa Shadden | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| Scott Buckstaff | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Darling | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 20.8% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Pilegard | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Spilman | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Travis Cottle | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Fritsen | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Eliza Pearce | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| Brian Hickman | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jake Fetterman | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Hurdle | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.