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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.55+2.34vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+2.42vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.03+1.90vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+2.12vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.98+3.11vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.30+0.63vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+2.88vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.25-0.65vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University-0.27+3.37vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-0.19+1.70vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University0.67-1.63vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-3.57vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.68-3.38vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-0.41-1.66vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-0.36-2.63vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-1.89-0.38vs Predicted
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17University of Washington-1.39-6.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.34Stanford University2.5524.4%1st Place
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4.42University of California at Santa Barbara2.0415.0%1st Place
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4.9University of Hawaii2.0312.6%1st Place
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6.12California Poly Maritime Academy1.629.2%1st Place
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8.11University of California at Berkeley0.984.7%1st Place
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6.63University of California at Los Angeles1.308.5%1st Place
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9.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.513.1%1st Place
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7.35University of Southern California1.255.3%1st Place
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12.37San Diego State University-0.271.0%1st Place
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11.7University of California at Davis-0.191.6%1st Place
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9.37Western Washington University0.672.9%1st Place
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8.43University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.5%1st Place
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9.62University of California at San Diego0.682.1%1st Place
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12.34Arizona State University-0.411.3%1st Place
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12.37University of California at Irvine-0.361.2%1st Place
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15.62California State University Channel Islands-1.890.4%1st Place
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10.43University of Washington-1.392.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiley Rogers | 24.4% | 20.5% | 16.1% | 13.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 15.0% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 12.6% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Marianna Shand | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Max Case | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 1.6% |
| Diya Correa | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Casey Gignac | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 17.8% | 7.5% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 5.3% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| George Soliman | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Noah Barton | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 1.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 17.9% | 7.5% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 17.9% | 8.1% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 65.6% |
| Emily Smith | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.