← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University2.55+2.34vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Los Angeles1.30+4.47vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+1.41vs Predicted
-
4University of Hawaii2.03+1.03vs Predicted
-
5California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+1.19vs Predicted
-
6University of Southern California1.25+1.20vs Predicted
-
7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+3.13vs Predicted
-
8San Diego State University-0.27+4.44vs Predicted
-
9University of Washington-1.39+1.38vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Davis-0.19+1.65vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-2.67vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Berkeley0.98-3.96vs Predicted
-
13Western Washington University0.67-3.66vs Predicted
-
14University of California at San Diego0.68-4.48vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Irvine-0.36-2.71vs Predicted
-
16Arizona State University-0.41-3.53vs Predicted
-
17California State University Channel Islands-1.89-1.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.34Stanford University2.5523.5%1st Place
-
6.47University of California at Los Angeles1.307.0%1st Place
-
4.41University of California at Santa Barbara2.0415.0%1st Place
-
5.03University of Hawaii2.0312.8%1st Place
-
6.19California Poly Maritime Academy1.628.2%1st Place
-
7.2University of Southern California1.256.3%1st Place
-
10.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.4%1st Place
-
12.44San Diego State University-0.271.1%1st Place
-
10.38University of Washington-1.392.8%1st Place
-
11.65University of California at Davis-0.191.5%1st Place
-
8.33University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.4%1st Place
-
8.04University of California at Berkeley0.985.9%1st Place
-
9.34Western Washington University0.673.1%1st Place
-
9.52University of California at San Diego0.683.1%1st Place
-
12.29University of California at Irvine-0.361.5%1st Place
-
12.47Arizona State University-0.411.0%1st Place
-
15.76California State University Channel Islands-1.890.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiley Rogers | 23.5% | 22.4% | 15.8% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 7.0% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Chris Kayda | 15.0% | 15.6% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 12.8% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diya Correa | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Max Case | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Casey Gignac | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 16.8% | 7.6% |
| Emily Smith | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 4.3% |
| George Soliman | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Noah Barton | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 17.2% | 6.9% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 14.8% | 18.1% | 8.2% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 6.5% | 12.0% | 66.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.