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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+3.16vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.55+1.19vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.03+1.80vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.17vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.38+4.60vs Predicted
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6University of Washington-1.39+4.34vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.98+1.03vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+1.75vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.67+0.21vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-0.27+2.35vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.68-1.63vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-6.05vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-4.61vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.19-2.53vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-0.36-2.73vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-1.89-0.41vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-0.41-4.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.16University of California at Santa Barbara2.0416.2%1st Place
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3.19Stanford University2.5526.3%1st Place
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4.8University of Hawaii2.0312.4%1st Place
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6.17University of California at Los Angeles1.308.5%1st Place
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9.6University of Southern California0.383.0%1st Place
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10.34University of Washington-1.392.2%1st Place
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8.03University of California at Berkeley0.984.7%1st Place
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9.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.6%1st Place
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9.21Western Washington University0.673.8%1st Place
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12.35San Diego State University-0.271.1%1st Place
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9.37University of California at San Diego0.682.5%1st Place
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5.95California Poly Maritime Academy1.628.2%1st Place
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8.39University of California at Santa Cruz0.823.9%1st Place
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11.47University of California at Davis-0.191.8%1st Place
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12.27University of California at Irvine-0.361.1%1st Place
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15.59California State University Channel Islands-1.890.4%1st Place
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12.35Arizona State University-0.411.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kayda | 16.2% | 16.3% | 15.2% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wiley Rogers | 26.3% | 20.5% | 15.7% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 12.4% | 13.8% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Emily Smith | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 1.5% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Max Case | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 0.8% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Casey Gignac | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 14.4% | 16.6% | 9.1% |
| Noah Barton | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Clay Myers | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 4.7% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 16.1% | 8.8% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 64.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 18.8% | 8.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.